Geothermal power development trends and insights
Geothermal energy is a clean, reliable, and increasingly cost-effective source of electricity and heat that is poised to play a critical role in the global energy transition. Over the past few years, the geothermal industry has seen steady growth, with new technological advancements and expanded applications driving increased deployment worldwide.
According to the latest industry data, the total installed geothermal power capacity globally reached 16,318 MW by the end of 2021, spread across 32 countries. This represents a modest 5.8% increase over the past three years, with a corresponding 7.8% rise in annual geothermal electricity generation, which reached 96,552 GWh.
While these numbers indicate a slowdown compared to previous decades, the geothermal sector is well-positioned for accelerated growth in the coming years. Driven by factors like advancements in drilling and conversion technologies, growing demand for renewable and dispatchable power, and increased policy support in many countries, the outlook for geothermal energy is increasingly positive.
In this in-depth article, we’ll explore the latest global trends and developments in the geothermal power industry, delving into key metrics, top-producing countries, technological innovations, and the factors shaping the industry’s evolution from 2020 to 2023 and beyond. Drawing insights from leading industry sources, we’ll provide practical tips and expert analysis to help stakeholders navigate the fast-changing geothermal landscape.
Global geothermal power capacity and generation
According to the latest data, the global installed geothermal power capacity reached 16,318 MW as of the end of 2021, distributed across 32 countries and approximately 198 geothermal fields. This represents a modest 5.8% increase over the 15,414 MW reported in 2018-2019.
The top five countries by installed geothermal capacity in 2021 were the United States (3,919 MW), Indonesia (2,384 MW), the Philippines (1,952 MW), Turkey (1,717 MW), and Kenya (972 MW). Together, these five nations account for over 85% of the global geothermal power capacity.
The global geothermal electricity generation in 2021 reached 96,552 GWh, a 7.8% increase from the 89,587 GWh generated in 2018-2019. This equates to approximately 0.34% of the world’s total electricity generation and 0.87% of global clean energy production.
Notably, there are several countries where geothermal energy plays a significant role in the domestic electricity mix. As of 2021-2022, geothermal accounted for at least 10% of the total electricity generation in seven countries: Kenya (45%), Iceland (almost 33%), El Salvador (almost 25%), and New Zealand, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and the Philippines (between 10-20%).
The global average capacity factor for geothermal power plants in 2021-2022 was 67.5%, reflecting the reliable and consistent nature of geothermal energy as a baseload power source. This figure has remained relatively stable over the past four decades, ranging from a minimum of 63.6% in 1995 to a maximum of 71.2% in 2005.
Geographical distribution of geothermal power
The global distribution of geothermal power development reflects the underlying tectonic and volcanic activity that drives the availability of high-temperature geothermal resources. The majority of the world’s geothermal power plants are located along the major tectonic plate boundaries, where subduction, collision, spreading, and other active geological processes create favorable conditions for geothermal energy.
As of 2021-2022, the Eurasian Plate hosts the largest share of global geothermal power capacity, with over 50% of the total. This is largely due to the long-standing geothermal development in countries like Indonesia, the Philippines, Turkey, and Italy. The North American, Oceania, and African plates also account for significant geothermal power, while the South American and Pacific plates have smaller but growing geothermal sectors.
The geographical distribution of geothermal power is a testament to the location-specific nature of this renewable resource. Countries situated along active plate boundaries, volcanic regions, and areas with high geothermal gradients are best positioned to harness this energy source effectively. As a result, the global geothermal industry continues to be concentrated in specific regions, with significant untapped potential in many parts of the world.
Technological advancements and innovations
The geothermal industry has witnessed steady technological progress, enabling the use of a broader range of resources and expanding the applications of geothermal energy beyond traditional electricity generation.
One of the key advancements has been the increasing deployment of binary cycle power plants, which can harness medium-temperature geothermal resources (100-180°C) more efficiently than older flash and dry steam technologies. Binary cycle plants use a secondary fluid with a lower boiling point than water to drive the turbine, allowing for the utilization of lower-temperature resources. This has opened up new geothermal development opportunities in regions with moderate-temperature resources.
Additionally, the development of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) technology has the potential to significantly expand the global geothermal resource base. EGS involves the artificial stimulation of underground reservoirs to enhance permeability and allow for the extraction of heat, even in areas without naturally occurring high-temperature fluids. While still in the demonstration stage, EGS holds promise for unlocking geothermal potential in a wider range of geological settings.
Advancements in drilling techniques, including directional and deep drilling, have also enabled the tapping of deeper, hotter, and more productive geothermal resources. Combined with improved exploration and resource assessment methods, these technological developments are helping to identify and develop geothermal resources that were previously considered inaccessible or uneconomical.
Beyond power generation, the geothermal industry has also expanded its applications to include direct use for heating and cooling, as well as emerging uses like geothermal-based hydrogen production and mineral extraction from geothermal brines. These diversified applications are enhancing the value proposition of geothermal energy and driving increased adoption in various sectors.
Geothermal power development in key countries
The global geothermal power industry is characterized by a handful of leading countries that have consistently been at the forefront of geothermal development, as well as emerging markets with significant untapped potential. Here’s a closer look at the status and trends in some of the key geothermal power-producing nations:
United States
The United States remains the global leader in geothermal power, with an installed capacity of 3,919 MW as of 2022. The vast majority of this capacity is concentrated in the western states of California and Nevada, which together account for nearly 95% of the country’s geothermal power generation.
While the US geothermal sector has seen relatively modest growth in recent years, with just a 6.5% increase in installed capacity since 2019, the country is poised for a resurgence in geothermal development. Technological advancements, such as enhanced geothermal systems and improvements in binary cycle technology, are opening up new opportunities, particularly in regions beyond the traditional geothermal hubs.
Additionally, the increasing focus on decarbonization and the growing demand for renewable and dispatchable power are driving renewed interest in geothermal energy. Policy support, through initiatives like the federal Investment Tax Credit and state-level incentives, is also expected to spur further geothermal deployment in the coming years.
Indonesia
Indonesia is the second-largest geothermal power producer globally, with an installed capacity of 2,384 MW as of 2021. The country boasts significant geothermal potential, estimated at over 23,000 MW, owing to its location along the Pacific Ring of Fire and the presence of numerous active volcanoes and tectonic boundaries.
Indonesia has experienced steady growth in its geothermal sector, with a net capacity addition of 246 MW over the past three years. The country’s geothermal power generation has also increased by 8.3% during this period, reaching 16,588 GWh in 2021.
Ongoing efforts to streamline the permitting process, provide attractive incentives for developers, and improve grid integration are expected to drive further geothermal expansion in Indonesia. The government has set ambitious targets to increase geothermal capacity to 5,000 MW by 2030, underscoring the country’s commitment to harnessing its abundant geothermal resources.
Philippines
The Philippines is the third-largest geothermal power producer worldwide, with an installed capacity of 1,952 MW as of 2022. The country’s geothermal development has been primarily driven by private sector investment and government support, with several major players operating in the market.
While the Philippines has seen modest capacity additions of 34 MW over the past three years, its geothermal electricity generation has increased by a significant 18%, reaching 11,670 GWh in 2022. This growth reflects the country’s efforts to optimize and expand its existing geothermal fields, as well as the development of new projects.
The Philippines’ geothermal potential is estimated at over 4,000 MW, and the government has set a target of adding 250 MW of new geothermal capacity by 2030. Continued policy support, streamlined permitting, and technological advancements are expected to facilitate the further growth of the country’s geothermal sector.
Turkey
Turkey has experienced a rapid expansion of its geothermal power sector in recent years, with its installed capacity growing from 1,549 MW in 2018-2019 to 1,717 MW in 2022 – a 10.8% increase. This surge has been driven by attractive feed-in tariffs, tax incentives, and a supportive regulatory framework that has attracted significant private investment.
Turkey’s geothermal generation has also increased by 33% over the past three years, reaching 10,840 GWh in 2022. The country’s geothermal potential is estimated at around 9,000 MW for conventional resources, with an additional 20 GW potential from enhanced geothermal systems (EGS).
As Turkey continues to diversify its energy mix and prioritize the integration of renewable sources, the geothermal industry is poised for further growth. Ongoing technological advancements, such as the use of binary cycle plants and hybrid solar-geothermal systems, are expected to enhance the competitiveness and versatility of geothermal energy in the country.
Kenya
Kenya has emerged as a leading player in the global geothermal power market, with its installed capacity growing from 858 MW in 2018-2019 to 972.5 MW in 2022 – a 12% increase. The country’s geothermal generation has also risen by 6.7% during this period, reaching 5,590 GWh in 2022.
Kenya’s geothermal success is largely attributed to its strategic location within the East African Rift System, a region with significant volcanic and tectonic activity that provides abundant high-temperature geothermal resources. The country has set ambitious targets to expand its geothermal capacity to 5,000 MW by 2030, a testament to its commitment to harnessing this renewable energy source.
Ongoing efforts by the government-owned Geothermal Development Company (GDC) and independent power producers (IPPs) to explore and develop new geothermal fields, coupled with technological advancements and streamlined permitting processes, are expected to drive further growth in Kenya’s geothermal sector.
Challenges and opportunities for the geothermal industry
While the global geothermal power industry has experienced steady growth over the past few years, it still faces several challenges that must be addressed to unleash its full potential. At the same time, emerging trends and technological advancements are presenting new opportunities for the industry to thrive.
Challenges:
– High upfront capital costs: Geothermal projects typically require significant initial investments for exploration, drilling, and power plant construction, which can be a barrier to entry for some developers.
– Geological uncertainty: The inherent uncertainty associated with geothermal resource identification and characterization can make project planning and financing more complex.
– Permitting and regulatory hurdles: Obtaining the necessary permits and navigating the regulatory environment can be a time-consuming and sometimes cumbersome process in many countries.
– Limited awareness and public acceptance: In some regions, a lack of public awareness and understanding about the benefits of geothermal energy can hinder project development.
Opportunities:
– Technological advancements: Ongoing innovations in drilling techniques, binary cycle technology, and enhanced geothermal systems are expanding the range of viable geothermal resources and improving the economics of geothermal projects.
– Diversified applications: The growing use of geothermal energy for direct use applications, such as district heating and cooling, as well as emerging uses like hydrogen production and mineral extraction, are creating new revenue streams and driving increased adoption.
– Policy support and incentives: Governments worldwide are implementing supportive policies, targeted incentives, and streamlined regulatory frameworks to attract investment and accelerate geothermal deployment.
– Synergies with other renewable technologies: Hybrid systems that combine geothermal with solar, wind, or energy storage are improving the reliability and flexibility of renewable energy generation.
– Increasing awareness and public acceptance: Initiatives to educate the public and showcase the environmental and economic benefits of geothermal energy are helping to build support for its wider adoption.
By addressing the existing challenges and capitalizing on the emerging opportunities, the global geothermal industry is poised for accelerated growth in the coming years. Stakeholders, including policymakers, investors, and industry players, must work collaboratively to overcome the barriers and unlock the full potential of this versatile renewable energy source.
Conclusion: The path forward for geothermal power
The geothermal power industry has demonstrated resilience and steady progress over the past few years, even in the face of global challenges. While the growth rate has been modest compared to some other renewable energy sources, the industry continues to evolve, driven by technological advancements, policy support, and the increasing recognition of geothermal energy’s unique value proposition.
As the world accelerates its transition to a clean energy future, geothermal power is poised to play a more prominent role in the global energy mix. Its reliable, dispatchable, and low-emissions characteristics make it an essential complement to variable renewable sources like solar and wind.
To capitalize on this opportunity, the geothermal industry must continue to innovate, drive down costs, and expand its applications beyond traditional electricity generation. Governments, investors, and other stakeholders must also collaborate to create enabling policies, streamline regulatory frameworks, and provide necessary financial and technical support to spur widespread geothermal deployment.
By harnessing the wealth of untapped geothermal resources around the world, the industry can contribute significantly to the global decarbonization efforts and enhance the resilience and sustainability of energy systems. The evolution of geothermal power from 2020 to 2023 and beyond represents an exciting chapter in the journey toward a clean energy future.
For the latest news, insights, and practical tips on air-cooled heat exchangers and other thermal management technologies, be sure to visit https://www.aircooledheatexchangers.net/. Our team of experts is dedicated to providing valuable information to help you optimize your thermal systems and stay ahead of the curve.
